Abstract

Forecasting has long been a challenge, and will remain so for the foreseeable future. But the analytical instruments and data processing capabilities available through the latest technology, and software, should allow much better forecasting than transport ministries, or regulatory agencies typically observe. Privatization brings new needs for demand forecasting. More attention is paid to risk under privatization, than when investments are publicly financed. And regulators must be able to judge traffic studies done by operators, and to learn what strategic behavior influenced these studies. Many governments, and regulators avoid good demand, modeling out of lack of conviction that theory, and models can do better than the"old hands"of the sector. This is dangerous when privatization changes the nature of business. For projects amounting to investments of $ 100-200 million, a cost of $ 100,000-200,000 is not a reason to reject a reasonable modeling effort. And some private forecasting firms are willing to sell guarantees, or insurance with their forecasts, to cover significant gaps between forecasts, and reality. Document type: Book

Abstract

The paper deals with the estimation of demand functions for services of publicrailway passenger transportation in the case of Slovenia. Six demand functions were selected and separately interpreted. The aggregate values of demand elasticities reported in this paper suggest that the railway passenger demand is price and income inelastic. Coefficients of income elasticity below unity show that the services of railway passenger transportation in Slovenia can be classified among normal goods. A hypothetical increase in average real fares leads to a percentage decrease in the number of passengers traveling by rail that is smaller than the percentage increase in fares. The estimated price elasticities imply that, in the short run, there is potential for improving revenues of the railway operator by increasing average real fares. Prispevek se ukvarja z ocenjevanjem funkcij povpraševanja po storitvah železniškega potniškega prometa v primeru Slovenije. V procesu selekcije je bilo izbranih šest agregatnih funkcij, katerih ocene posebej navajamo in komentiramo. Iz ocen funkcij izhaja, da je povpraševanje po storitvah železniškega potniškega prometa cenovno in dohodkovno neelastično. Koeficientidohodkovne elastičnosti povpraševanja manjši od ena kažejo, da je moč prevoze v notranjem železniškem prometu za povprečnega kupca storitev železniškega potniškega prometa v Sloveniji uvrstiti med normalne dobrine. V primeru povečanja povprečnih realnih voznin se število prepeljanih potnikov naželeznici zmanjša odstotno za manj kot znaša odstotni dvig voznin. Evidentirana cenovna neelastičnost povpraševanja nas navaja k sklepu, da se prihodki operaterja notranjega železniškega prometa pri zviševanju povprečne realne voznine povečujejo.