Abstract

The distribution of natural strata is uncertain due to tectonic movements and sedimentation. Capturing geological uncertainty is a challenge for traditional deterministic models. In this study, an improved three-dimensional coupled Markov chains method for probabilistic stratigraphic reconstruction was developed. This method considers the correlation between the field borehole data. On this basis, an inversion analysis method for horizontal transition probability matrix estimation is proposed. This method makes the predictions more suitable for possible stratigraphic distributions. The accuracy of the method was further verified by different borehole schemes from the Mawan Tunnel in Shenzhen. The results show that the proposed method can still have high accuracy when the number of boreholes is sparse. This method can reflect the asymmetry, continuity and anisotropy of three-dimensional strata.

Abstract

The distribution of natural strata is uncertain due to tectonic movements and sedimentation. Capturing geological uncertainty is a challenge for traditional deterministic models. In this study, an improved three-dimensional coupled Markov chains method for probabilistic stratigraphic reconstruction was developed. This method considers the correlation between the field borehole data. On this basis, an inversion analysis method for horizontal transition probability matrix estimation is proposed. This method makes the predictions more suitable for possible stratigraphic distributions. The accuracy of the method was further verified by different borehole schemes from the Mawan Tunnel in Shenzhen. The results show that the proposed method can still have high accuracy when the number of boreholes is sparse. This method can reflect the asymmetry, continuity and anisotropy of three-dimensional strata.