Abstract

The authors have assembled 1960–2012 infrastructure stock data from 145 countries to estimate the demand for infrastructure services in emerging markets and developing economies. This paper identifies that the required resource flows to satisfy new demand while maintaining service for existing infrastructure amounts to $836 billion or 6.1 percent of current gross domestic product per year over the period 2014–20. The annual infrastructure investment gap for emerging markets and developing economies is $452 billion per year, which implies that emerging markets and developing economies should almost double their current spending. The paper also estimates that half of the spending should be allocated to maintenance of existing assets. Acknowledging the challenges to compare infrastructure investment estimates across different methodologies, the authors recognize this result as a lower bound estimate and compare the results with others available in the literature. Document type: Book

Abstract

Despite the recent slowdown, the underlying growth of the global economy remains solid. After a 4 percent growth in 2010, Russia's real output is expected to grow 4.4 percent in 2011, increasingly driven by domestic demand. Russia's households have absorbed the food price shock thanks to a combination of higher wages and pensions, and resort to private and public safety nets. The country emerged from the global recession with lower unemployment and poverty than feared. But global risks and uncertainties increased with the new oil shock. Although the short-term impact will be positive for Russia's export and fiscal revenues, there is no room for complacency. Macroeconomic policy should focus on the short-term objective of controlling inflation and medium-term fiscal adjustment towards long-term, sustainable level of non-oil fiscal deficit. Improving the efficiency of public expenditure to create fiscal space for productive infrastructure and strengthening the investment climate for the private sector remain among key long-term challenges. The ongoing rethinking of the government's long-term strategy and a period of high oil revenues provide an opportunity to focus on these long-term issues more forcefully than during the global crisis.

Abstract

year after the onset of Ebola, the estimated GDP losses for the three countries through 2015 total US$2.2 billion (US$240 million for Liberia, US$535 million for Guinea and US$1.4 billion for Sierra Leone). This is the result of the severe impact of the epidemic which has been exacerbated by the large decline in the world price of iron ore and severe corporate governance issues in mining in Sierra Leone. Important differences among the three countries are emerging. Liberia is gradually returning to normalcy, Guineas economy is stagnating, and Sierra Leone is suffering a severe recession. This update presents the World Banks most recent analysis of the economic and fiscal effects of the Ebola epidemic on the three countries. In relation to our January 2015 report it contains: 1) an updated status for the economies of Liberia, Guinea, and Sierra Leone; and 2) a brief description of these countries Economic Recovery Plans with indicative estimates of their potential impact on growth. As of April 2015, the Ebola epidemic has been largely contained but the negative effects on the economies of Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone loom large amidst continued uncertainty about the timing of complete eradication. The crisis continues to adversely affect these economies, so pace of recovery in these countries will depend heavily on adequate financing and effective implementation of the recovery plans. Ultimately, Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone will need the strong support from the development community over the next years to both make up for the losses incurred during the Ebola crisis and make these economies less vulnerable for the future.