Abstract

Africa is estimated to have great potential for agricultural production, but there are a number of constraints inhibiting the development of that potential. Spatial data are increasingly important in the realization of potential as well as the associated constraints. With crop production data generated at 5-minute spatial resolution, the paper applies the spatial tobit regression model to estimate the possible impacts of improvements in transport accessibility in East Africa. It is found that rural accessibility and access to markets are important to increase agricultural production. In particular for export crops, such as coffee, tea, tobacco, and cotton, access to ports is crucial. The elasticities are estimated at 0.3–4.6. In addition, the estimation results show that spatial autocorrelation matters to the estimation results. While a random shock in a particular locality would likely affect its neighboring places, the spatial autoregressive term can be positive or negative, depending on how fragmented the current production areas are. Document type: Book

Abstract

Road networks are essential for economic, social, environmental, and security reasons. Road networks are therefore considered critical networks according to the consequences of their disruptions (Tacnet and Mermet 2012). Flooding poses an important threat to roads, and can lead to massive obstruction of traffic and damage to road structures, with possible long-term effects (Buren and Buma 2012). Flooding leads to significant repair costs for road control authorities, access difficulties for emergency services (Versini, Gaume, and Andrieu 2010a), and disruption for road users and the community at large. The consequences for businesses and the economy in general can be very significant (Brabhaharan, Wiles, and Frietag 2006). Because of the time and costs required for rebuilding, sustainable and long-term planning is crucial; therefore, the consideration of flood risk constitutes an important input for decision making in planning this type of infrastructure. Flood risk analysis for road networks allows plans to be carried out in an appropriate manner, allocating resources for prevention, mitigation, and restoration (Balijepalli and Oppong 2014; Jenelius and Mattsson 2014). This report summarizes the main concepts and methodologies that are used to assess flood risk for road networks. The report presents references and examples, and is intended to be a starting point for practitioners in the field.