Safety Analysis of the Advanced Airspace Concept using Monte Carlo Simulation

Abstract

Safe separation of aircraft is a primary objective of all air traffic control systems. A probabilistic risk analysis of a next-generation air traffic control operational concept was conducted using Monte Carlo simulation. Results indicate that this safety-critical system would have a mean time between mid-air collisions of about 281 years in enroute airspace, which is around the desired target for an automated separation assurance function. Among the simulation trials that ended with mid-air collision, most involved failure to locate and track aircraft through radar or satellite positioning systems with the remainder due to conflict detection failure.

Original document

The different versions of the original document can be found in:

• http://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/b6bf/fe618d7f22e74abaa5b717e90b00d929099b.pdf

• http://arc.aiaa.org/doi/pdf/10.2514/6.2010-7543,

http://dx.doi.org/10.2514/6.2010-7543

• https://www.aviationsystemsdivision.arc.nasa.gov/publications/2010/ThipphavongGNC2010Final.pdf,

https://www.aviationsystems.arc.nasa.gov/publications/2010/ThipphavongGNC2010Final.pdf,

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/David_Blum4/publication/265294045_Safety_Analysis_of_the_Advanced_Airspace_Concept_using_Monte_Carlo_Simulation/links/559b438408ae5d8f3938066a.pdf,

http://www.aviationsystemsdivision.arc.nasa.gov/publications/2010/ThipphavongGNC2010Final.pdf,

https://academic.microsoft.com/#/detail/2320874175