WHERE BRICS IS HEADING: DEMOGRAPHIC AND VALUE DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS

Abstract

Relevance. The relevance of “non-Western” associations of states, such as BRICS, is rapidly increasing as the global world order is in transit to multipolarity, going through geopolitical aggravation. The subject of the study is the demographic future of the BRICS countries and value shifts in these countries. The purpose of the study is to determine the impact of the demographic future of the BRICS countries on the prevalence of certain value attitudes among the population of these countries. The objectives of the study are to construct scenario forecasts for the demographic future of the BRICS countries and forecast the most significant consequences of each scenario in terms of shifts in value attitudes. Novelty – for the first time, the consequences of certain demographic development scenarios of the BRICS countries for the value landscape of these countries are considered. Research method: to construct scenario demographic forecasts, a cohort-component model (“age shifts”) of the “female-based” type was used. Data sources – to determine the value portrait of the country, the WVS data of the seventh wave was used; a country’s place on the map of values is determined by two axes – the axis of survival/selfexpression values and the axis of traditional-religious/secular-rational values. Results – it is shown that negative demographic scenario can lead to a noticeable weakening of BRICS both economically (due to a reduction in labor resources) and in value-cultural terms on the world stage. Conclusions – the implementation of the BRICS+ project will contribute to the significant impact of the union on the value-cultural map of the world. Recommendations. If the governments of China and Brazil do not soon take care of the problems of fertility rates and do not introduce the most active measures to support them, then the countries will find themselves in a “fertility trap” with a strong decline in population that cannot be compensated by migration. India should also begin to develop and take measures to support fertility rates, because due to active modernization, they will begin to naturally decline (which is what has been happening over the last decade, especially in the developed south of the country). Russia needs to simultaneously both pursue a proactive fertility-supporting policy, eliminate excess mortality from unhealthy lifestyles, and increase health care spending.

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