Vpliv novega Zakona o varnosti cestnega prometa na število prometnih nesreč v Sloveniji

Abstract

This paper studies the number of traffic accidents (TAs) in which people were killed or/and seriously injured over the period from January 1996 to October 2000 in Slovenia. The aim of this work is to ascertain if the reduction in the increase of the number of TAs after 1 May 1998, when the new road traffic safety law (RTSL) was adopted, is statistically significant. Assuming that the time series analysed contains also a seasonal component, we found out that the new RTSL had a very positive impact on the number of TAs, especially in the first year (approximately) after adoption. After this period the average increase of the number of TAs rose again, but not as high as before the adoption of the RTSL. V prispevku smo analizirali število prometnih nesreč s smrtnim izidom in hujšimi telesnimi poškodbami v času od januarja 1996 do oktobra 2000 v Sloveniji. Pri tem smo želeli ugotoviti, ali je mogoče govoriti o statistično značilnem zmanjšanju prirastka prometnih nesreč po sprejetju novega Zakona o varnosti cestnega prometa, ki je začel veljati 1. maja 1998. Ob upoštevanju periodičnega značaja opazovanega pojava smo ugotovili, da je novi zakon vplival na zmanjševanje števila prometnih nesreč predvsem v obdobju približno enega leta po sprejetju, nato pa je povprečni prirastek števila prometnih nesreč spet narasel, vendar je nižji kot pa v obdobju pred sprejetjem Zakona.