A system dynamics energy model for a sustainable transportation system

Abstract

The transportation sector is one of the most resilient to the shift away from oil. Policies have been put in place in different regions to introduce alternative fuels and reduce the road transportation heavy dependency on oil products and the related environmental impacts; results, however, are in most cases disappointing. The system is resilient and goes back to the historical dichotomy gasoline-diesel. If from a policy maker perspective, a system dynamics model of the automotive sector can lead to the development of effective policies to achieve sustainable mobility, from an energy company perspective, such a model could be used to analyze possible threats and design optimal adaptation strategies for a highly volatile and market that is always on the edge of starting a new major transition. The model here presented can serve both purposes, and the results obtained show how a similar instrument can really make the difference in highly dynamic sectors with ongoing major transitions.

QC 20200518

Original document

The different versions of the original document can be found in:

• http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-273300