Increasing understanding and confidence in THM simulations of engineered barrier systems

Abstract

Previous studies on the modelling of coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) processes in bentonite-based engineered barrier systems (EBSs) showed the sensitivity of the output quantities to changes in the input parameters. To investigate the effects of uncertainties on the modelling results, to improve the understanding of the coupled processes active in the repository near field and to gain in-depth understanding of model uncertainties of different codes, a sensitivity analysis and code comparison of EBS simulations was performed within the Task Force on Engineered Barrier Systems. The analysis included variations in material parameter values, boundary and initial conditions, considered physical processes and model geometries, amounting to 60 different cases. This in-depth analysis helped evaluate the influence of parameter and conceptual uncertainties on the results of coupled THM simulations and to identify key parameters and processes. The cross-code comparison encouraged a fruitful exchange among modelling teams and led to very good agreements between the results of the different codes. Serving as a benchmark example for THM-coupled simulations of bentonite-based EBSs, the study helped increase the confidence in the modelling capabilities of several codes used for safety evaluations of repositories for spent fuel and high-level radioactive waste