Probabilistic seismic hazard and risk assessment in Spain

1 Title, abstract and keywords

This monograph explains how probabilistic seismic risk assessments can be performed at different resolution levels using the same methodology, providing results in terms of the same metrics; but it also highlights what the differences in terms of inputs for the analysis are in the different cases. A country level assessment is first performed using a coarsegrain exposure database that includes only the building stock in the urban regions of Spain. A detailed urban seismic risk assessment is performed for Lorca, Murcia, Spain. In both cases, the fully probabilistic seismic risk results are expressed in terms of the loss exceedance curve, which is the main output, from where different probabilistic risk metrics, such as the average annual loss and the probable maximum loss can be derived. Because of the damage data availability for the Lorca, May 2011, earthquake, a comparison between the observed losses and those modelled using an earthquake scenario with similar characteristics in terms of location, magnitude and spectral accelerations was done for the building stock of the city. The results of the comparison are presented in terms of expected losses (in monetary terms) and damage levels related to the obtained mean damage ratios are compared with those observed by post-earthquake surveys. This monograph is an effort to explain, in a transparent and comprehensive way, through a step by step example, how risk can be calculated in probabilistic terms and what are the influences of the inputs in each of the stages and what the obtained results mean. After reviewing several available tools to estimate catastrophe risk by means of probabilistic approaches, the CAPRA Platform was chosen because its flexibility, compatibility with the assessments to be performed at different resolution levels and its open-source/freeware characteristics.