What energy source for the light vehicle segment in Brazil?: an electricity, ethanol and gasoline price analysis

Abstract

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No. of bitstreams: 1 MPGI Thesis Helene Reydet.pdf: 1249386 bytes, checksum: 51d0705decf1aa1454eb0e764f36f4a0 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-11-13 The early and widespread adaptation of Flex-Fuel vehicles (FFVs) in Brazil has enabled the country to be a leader for ethanol production and use in the light vehicle segment. However, given the country’s natural resources and today’s technological progress when it comes to Electric vehicles (EVs), electricity is an energy source that owes to be considered as an alternative to ethanol for light vehicles. To the best of our knowledge, no study has been performed to compare the country’s price of electricity and ethanol as energy sources for this vehicle segment. This is a first attempt to consider both alternatives in the Brazilian market. The goal of this market study is to provide the reader with an understanding of both ethanol and electricity’s price attractivity as energy sources for light vehicles in Brazil. The United States were used as a benchmark in order to evaluate both energy source relative attractivity. The results obtained demonstrated a clear competitive advantage of electricity over ethanol and gasoline in the light vehicle segment in Brazil. When considering median price of energy sources alone, electricity is 6.6 times cheaper than ethanol and 6.7 times cheaper than gasoline. What’s more, the price gap between energy sources is much higher in Brazil compared to the US, making electricity comparatively more attractive in Brazil. Thus, when considering prices alone, electricity is therefore an desirable option to look into in Brazil for the light vehicle segment, both in terms of absolute and relative numbers. While this market study is a first attempt at comparing electricity and ethanol as energy sources for light vehicles in Brazil, further research will be needed in order to evaluate the total cost of ownership for FFVs and EVs as well as to understand the challenges ahead in terms of infrastructure, electric grid capacity and EV subsidies, etc. A adaptação inicial e generalizada de veículos Flex-Fuel (FFVs) no Brasil permitiu ao país ser líder na produção e uso de etanol no segmento de veículos leves. No entanto, dados os recursos naturais do país e o atual progresso tecnológico em relação aos veículos elétricos (VE), a eletricidade ´e uma fonte de energia que deve ser considerada como uma alternativa ao etanol para veículos leves. Até onde sabemos, nenhum estudo foi realizado para comparar o pre¸co no país da eletricidade e do etanol como fontes de energia para esse segmento de veículos. Esta ´e uma primeira tentativa de considerar as duas alternativas no mercado brasileiro. O objetivo deste estudo de mercado ´e de fornecer ao leitor uma compreensão do mercado de veículos leves comparando a atratividade do pre¸co do etanol e da eletricidade como fontes de energia para o referido segmento no Brasil. Os Estados Unidos foram utilizados como referência para avaliar a atratividade relativa da fonte de energia. Os resultados obtidos demonstraram uma clara vantagem competitiva da eletricidade sobre o etanol e a gasolina no segmento de veículos leves no Brasil. Quando se considera o preço médio das fontes de energia sozinha, a eletricidade é 6,6 vezes mais barata que o etanol e 6,7 vezes mais barata que a gasolina. Além do mais, a diferença de preço entre essas fontes de energia ´e muito maior no Brasil em compara¸c˜ao com a diferença observada nos Estados Unidos, tornando a eletricidade comparativamente ainda mais atraente no Brasil. Assim, ao considerar apenas os preços, a eletricidade é uma opção atrativa a ser considerada para o mercado brasileiro de veículos leves, tanto em números absolutos quanto relativos. Enquanto este estudo de mercado ´e uma primeira tentativa de comparar a eletricidade e o etanol como fontes de energia para veículos leves no Brasil, mais pesquisas serão necessárias para avaliar o custo total de propriedade para FFVs e EVs, bem como para entender os desafios futuros em termos de infra-estrutura, capacidade de rede elétrica e subsídios de EV, etc.

Original document

The different versions of the original document can be found in:

• http://hdl.handle.net/10438/25819