New Generation of challenges in a complex environment

NEW GENERATION OF CHALLENGES IN A COMPLEX ENVIRONMENT

Joan Tugores Ques University of Barcelona

Justification

Although the complexities of the current environment are evident, giving rise to expressions such as “polycrisis” or “a crisis-prone world”, or even “a new cold war”, it is worth remembering that in a similar situation, in 1930, Keynes proposed more constructive scenarios based on the power of technological innovation and investments to incorporate them into the business and social fabric. His appeal to the “economic possibilities of our grandchildren” has recently been echoed in a formulation by the director of the IMF, Georgieva (2024), in which she once again tries to go beyond the short term to outline environmental scenarios with long(er) term perspective, although with the necessary doses of realism, remembering as Keynes already pointed out the complications that wars or demographic issues could entail.

Goals

The supranational environment plays a central role in shaping the framework of the Catalan economy and business activity. The complexities of the third decade of the 21st century – with the risks of geopolitical fragmentation, tensions in supply chains, technological changes, etc. – are reminiscent of the situation that occurred in the 1930s in which protectionist responses and the formation of “spheres” of influence also produced what today we would call fragmentations in the international economy. The appeals to keep open, despite geopolitical rivalries, areas of cooperation/coordination in relation to the clearest cases of “global public goods” are as necessary as they are difficult to implement. But generating the framework in which the possibilities alluded to by Keynes-Georgieva about “technological optimism” require adjustments in many economic, socio-political and cultural/institutional parameters. The contributions of Acemoglu and others – such as in “Progress and Power” – are illustrative in this regard.

Results/Conclusions to work on

Despite the difficulties of the moment (“colossal disorder” to use Keynes' expression), or even more precisely because of them, it is important to outline what the “Next Generation” is, the new generation of challenges and adequate analysis to understand the factors that They interact between the short term and the long term, to navigate this complex environment. Integrating the economic-business dimensions with the technological, socio-political and geostrategic ones offers ways to work with scenarios that combine facing the problems of the moment with more solidly putting future perspectives on track in a world that is changing with great speed, depth and irreversibility.

KEYWORDS Fragmentation New Challenges Technology Wars