Energy scenarios for European passenger transport in the year 2030

Abstract

In this paper four energy scenarios for Westy-European passenger transport are developed. To start with, the present transport system as a base-line case is described and analysed. Next, for each scenario we sketch how the passenger transport system may look like in terms of the use of various existing and future transport technologies and the corresponding model split. Based on this information, expected energy consumption features of the various transport modes are described, data on the present fuel supply and electricity generation system are offered, and estimations of the future energy system are given. Then, the energy consumption and CO2 emissions associated with the future passenger transport systems are stressed and these impacts are compared with the current system. The conclusion is that a large-scale reduction of CO2 emissions is possible in several ways. Each way will cause many problems, since drastic policy measures will have to be introduced, which may affect economic growth and the lifestyles of individuals.