Modeling Tactical Trajectory Accuracy Effects on Traffic Flow Management Operations

Abstract

Software, databases, and methods from previous predictive model studies were used to assess benefits of augmenting parametric methods with kinetic model trajectory predictions. Those results were consistent with other studies of models for aircraft position prediction accuracy during climbs and descents. A kinetic model reduced error for average arrival meter fix crossing time predictions across a one-hour predictive range by 0.6 minutes (39% improvement) when compared to the parametric model used in an experimental traffic flow management system. These results are comparable to the kinetic model's 1.1 minute (47% improvement) error reduction over the operational traffic flow management's parametric implementation. Data also show national convective weather conditions do not appear to affect performance differentials. Kinetic systems do not necessarily ensure performance superior to parametric systems in all areas. Parametric models of air traffic management procedural effects on altitude profiles demonstrated an average 10% error reduction for selected sector entry and occupancy metrics. The sources of these particular errors are not inherent to kinetic methods and could be addressed by procedural modeling improvements. The errors reductions achievable by kinetic models do not ameliorate pre-departure uncertainties, though traffic flow management functions a variety of air traffic management teams and functions may benefit from these levels of increased accuracy at their information exchange boundaries, particularly at Center, sector, and meter-fix crossings.