Comparing the modeling of delay propagation in the US and European air traffic networks

Abstract

Complex Systems are those in which a very large number of elements interact, usually in a non-linear fashion, producing emergent behaviors that are typically difficult to predict. Air transportation systems fall in this category, with a large number of aircraft following a pre-scheduled program. It has been shown that it is possible to understand and forecast delays propagation in these systems. The objective of this analysis is to compare the modeling in the US and in the European air traffic networks, analyzing the propagation of delays due to failures in the schedule or to disturbances. We use two different agent based models recently developed to simulate the delays propagation and assess the effect of disruptions in the networks (US and ECAC areas). Our results show that a first-come first-served protocol managing the flights produces larger congestion when compared with an ATFM (Air Traffic Flow Management) slots priority system.

This work is co-financed by EUROCONTROL acting on behalf of the SESAR Joint Undertaking (the SJU) and the EUROPEAN UNION as part of TREE project under the Work Package E in the SESAR Programme. Bruno Campanelli is funded by the Conselleria d'Educació, Cultura i Universitats of the Government of the Balearic Islands and the European Social Fund. José J. Ramasco acknowledges funding from the Ramón y Cajal program of the Spanish Ministry of Economy (MINECO).

Peer reviewed