Vulnerabilidad sísmica y toma de decisiones

Abstract

Vulnerability of civil structures and systems under seismic actions have been extensively used and studied in the last decade. However, the goals of those studies are very diverse and it have caused some confusion on the meaning and definition of vulnerability. Naturally, different scopes of vulnerability lead to different methodologies in its study which may be incompatible. The present aim is to analyse the definition of seismic vulnerability in the framework of Bayesian decision making. Three different examples of decision making related to seismic vulnerability, which are qualitatively different, guide the discussion. They have an increasing complexity: decisions on normative seismic design; decisions on insurances against seismic risk and, finally, those decisions that should be taken to lead alarm, mitigation and rescue systems for seismic disasters. The three analised examples correspond to three different decision making schemes, respectively named: a priori, a posteriori and preposterior. In each case the definition of seismic vulnerability depends on the concept of considered utility (cost-benefit), on the involved random states and the scale in which the phenomena are to be considered. Most of the concepts associated with seismic vulnerability are reviewed through these three examples. A conclusion is that seismic vulnerability studies should consider the associated decision making problem. Simultaneously, the study of methodological and estimation aspects on vulnerability are remarked in order to improve both guidelines for seismic design and disaster mitigation.