Autoregression model for the GDP of the Russian Federation, supplemented by the indicator of business activity of trading partner countries

Abstract

The model proposed in this paper is a modification of the second-order autoregressive process with the addition of an external variable
that allows taking into account the cycles of trading partners to predict output. This model has shown a significant advantage in forecasting for the long-term horizon, which confirms the importance of taking into account the economic activity of partner countries when forecasting the GDP of the Russian Federation.

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