The Impact of Climate Change on Material Degradation: Finding a Feasible Approach for Climate Model Evaluation

Abstract

Understanding how climate change accelerates or slows down the process of material deterioration is the first step towards assessing adaptive approaches for the preservation of historical heritage. Analysis of the climate change effects on the degradation risk assessment parameters like freeze-thaw cycles and salt crystallization is also a key parameter when considering mitigating actions. Due to the vulnerability of cultural heritage in Iran to climate change, the impact of this phenomenon on basic parameters like temperature was analyzed. Choosing an appropriate regional climate model is the first and most crucial step in the analysis of climate change effects on heritage. The outputs of two different regional climate models: the ALARO-0-SURFEX model (Ghent University, Belgium) and the REMO model (HZG-GERICS, Germany) were analyzed to find out which model is more adapted to the region. So the focus of this research is mainly on the evaluation process to find a feasible approach for validation study to determine the reliability of each model. For model validation, a comparison between model data and observations was performed for 30 years from 1980-2017. Besides, some climatic parameters which are likely critical for heritage like freeze-thaw cycles were studied to find out how reliable these models are in the field of building pathology.

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