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Latest revision as of 13:08, 12 February 2021
Abstract
The potential demand of battery electric vehicle (BEV) is the base of the decision-making to the government policy formulation, enterprise manufacture capacity expansion, and charging infrastructure construction. How to predict the future amount of BEV accurately is very important to the development of BEV both in practice and in theory. The present paper tries to compare the short-term accuracy of a proposed modified Bass model and Lotka-Volterra (LV) model, by taking China’s BEV development as the case study. Using the statistics data of China’s BEV amount of 21 months from Jan 2015 to Sep 2016, we compare the simulation accuracy based on the value of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and discuss the forecasting capacity of the two models according to China’s government expectation. According to the MAPE value, the two models have good prediction accuracy, but the Bass model is more accurate than LV model. Bass model has only one dimension and focuses on the diffusion trend, while LV model has two dimensions and mainly describes the relationship and competing process between the two populations. In future research, the forecasting advantages of Bass model and LV model should be combined to get more accurate predicting effect.
Document type: Article
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The different versions of the original document can be found in:
- http://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/jat/2017/7801837.pdf under the license https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by
- http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2017/7801837 under the license cc-by
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Published on 01/01/2017
Volume 2017, 2017
DOI: 10.1155/2017/7801837
Licence: Other
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