Latest revision as of 18:36, 3 February 2021

Abstract

This presentation corresponds to: our paper explores a new risk-hedged approach for re-routing air traffic around forecast convective weather. In this work, flying through a more likely weather instantiation is considered to pose a higher level of risk. Current operational practice strategically plans re-routes to avoid only the most likely (highest risk) weather instantiation, and then tactically makes any necessary adjustments as the weather evolves. The risk-hedged approach strategically plans re-routes by minimizing the risk-adjusted path length, incorporating multiple possible weather instantiations with associated likelihoods (risks). The resulting model is transparent and is readily analyzed for realism and treated with well-understood shortest-path algorithms. Risk-hedged re-routes are computed for some example weather instantiations. The main result is that in some scenarios, relative to an operational-practice proxy solution, the risk-hedged solution provides the benefits of lower risk as well as shorter path length. In other scenarios, the benefits of the risk-hedged solution are ambiguous, because the solution is characterized by a tradeoff between risk and path length. The risk-hedged solution can be executed in those scenarios where it provides a clear benefit over current operational practice.

Original document

The different versions of the original document can be found in:

• http://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/4610/943917e7b1fe8a0e8cfabc3ac72e954ca970.pdf

• http://arc.aiaa.org/doi/pdf/10.2514/6.2016-3601,

http://dx.doi.org/10.2514/6.2016-3601

• https://arc.aiaa.org/doi/10.2514/6.2016-3601,

https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20170000831,

https://repository.exst.jaxa.jp/dspace/handle/a-is/587593,

https://academic.microsoft.com/#/detail/2410195188