Latest revision as of 05:31, 2 February 2021

Abstract

It is both costly and time consuming to predict the behavior of complex systems due to their data intensity. They also tend to be dynamic which means they may not lend themselves to a quantitative behavioral analysis. An impact analysis is presented as being a novel qualitative approach with the aim of determining, qualitatively, how a system element deviates from a pre-defined “normal” operational mode due to a change in the operation of another element existing within the same architecture, or due to an interaction with an external environmental condition. Performing such an analysis determines elements in the system that would be affected by the change and aids in system development through identification of relationships and interdependencies prior to modifications. Air Traffic Management (ATM) systems are examples which would benefit from such analyses. This paper presents two impact analyses; one of which encapsulates a complex real world scenario involving the Icelandic Volcanic Eruption in April 2010, the other a series of localized scenarios focused on London Heathrow. The potential and capability of the model and approach to understand more about how the ATM system operates, and how its behavior evolves through scenarios, have been emphasized through these analyses. The agent based impact analysis is shown to identify the elemental relationships and interdependencies in a simple qualitative manner whilst not being data intensive.

Original document

The different versions of the original document can be found in:

• https://pure.qub.ac.uk/ws/files/745714/AIAA-2010-9256-359%20-%20Davies.pdf

• http://arc.aiaa.org/doi/pdf/10.2514/6.2010-9256,

http://dx.doi.org/10.2514/6.2010-9256

• https://arc.aiaa.org/doi/10.2514/6.2010-9256,

https://academic.microsoft.com/#/detail/2018032721