Latest revision as of 00:33, 2 February 2021

Abstract

conflict probe is an air traffic management decision support tool that predicts aircraft-to-aircraft and aircraft-to-airspace conflicts. In order to achieve the confidence of the air traffic controllers who are provided this tool, a conflict probe must accurately predict these events. To ensure their continued confidence, the accuracy should not only be assessed in the laboratory before the probe is deployed but continue to be reassessed as the system undergoes upgrades and software changes. Furthermore, it is desirable to use recorded air traffic data to test these tools in order to preserve real-world errors that affect their performance. This paper utilizes a proven approach that modifies surveillance radar track data in time to create traffic scenarios containing conflicts with characteristic properties similar to those encountered in actual air traffic operations. It is these time shifted traffic scenarios that are used to evaluate the conflict probe. This paper describes the detailed process of evaluating the missed and false conflict predictions, the calculation of the corresponding error probabilities, and a regression testing methodology to examine two runs of the conflict probe to determine if the conflict prediction accuracy has improved or degraded over time. A detailed flight example is presented which illustrates the specific processing involved in conflict accuracy analysis. Next using a scenario of many flights, a methodology utilizing categorical data analysis techniques is applied to determine if a new version of the conflict probe's software significantly improved or degraded in conflict prediction accuracy.

Original document

The different versions of the original document can be found in:

• https://zenodo.org/record/1267231 under the license https://creativecommons.org/share-your-work/public-domain/cc0/

• https://zenodo.org/record/1267231/files/article.pdf

• http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpl/abstractAuthors.jsp?reload=true&arnumber=1391306&contentType=Conference+Publications,

http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/iel5/9579/30294/01391306.pdf,

https://academic.microsoft.com/#/detail/1573441690 under the license cc0

• http://xplorestaging.ieee.org/ielx5/9579/30294/01391306.pdf?arnumber=1391306,

http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/dasc.2004.1391306