Latest revision as of 20:24, 25 January 2021

Abstract

The main purpose of this study was to investigate the use of various chaotic pattern recognition methods for traffic flow prediction. Traffic flow is a variable, dynamic and complex system, which is non-linear and unpredictable. The emergence of traffic flow congestion in road traffic is estimated when the traffic load on a specific section of the road in a specific time period is close to exceeding the capacity of the road infrastructure. Under certain conditions, it can be seen in concentrating chaotic traffic flow patterns. The literature review of traffic flow theory and its connection with chaotic features implies that this kind of method has great theoretical and practical value. Researched methods of identifying chaos in traffic flow have shown certain restrictions in their techniques but have suggested guidelines for improving the identification of chaotic parameters in traffic flow. The proposed new method of forecasting congestion in traffic flow uses Wigner-Ville frequency distribution. This method enables the display of a chaotic attractor without the use of reconstruction phase space. Osnovni namen študije je raziskati uporabo metode razpoznavanja kaotičnih vzorcev za uporabo pri napovedovanju zgostitve prometnega toka v cestnem prometu. Prometni tok je spremenljiv, dinamičen in kompleksen sitem, ki je nelinearen nepredvidljiv. Nastanek zgostitve prometnega toka na cestnem odseku ocenjujemo v časovnem intervalu, ko le-ta prične presegati kapaciteto cestnega odseka. Pod določenimi pogojih je mogoče zaznati kaotični vzorec v prometnem toku. Pregled literature teorije prometnega toka in njegovo povezavo s teorijo kaosa je prikazal veliko teoretično in praktično vrednost tovrstne metode. Raziskane metode identifikacije kaotičnega vzorca v prometnem toku so pokazale omejitve, zato je v nadaljevanju opisana smernica za izboljšavo prepoznavanja kaotičnih vzorcev v prometnem toku. Predlagana nova metoda za napovedovanje zgostitev v prometnem toku predlaga uporabo Wigner-Ville frekvenčne porazdelitve. Postopek omogoča prikaz kaotičnega atraktorja brez uporabe rekonstrukcije faznega prostora.

Original document

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