== Abstract ==

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<p>Currently, combining forecasts is considered as the easiest way to improve the quality of forecasting compared to individual models.<br>

The purpose of this work is to test the possibilities of the simplest methods of combining, such as a simple average and estimates based on the average squared error of forecasts of previous periods, to improve the qualitative characteristics of short-term forecasts of five indicators of resource prices. The work is based on the forecast base of the Bulletin of Short-term Forecasts of the IEP, which provides an array of primary (combined) forecasts and allows you to build their combinations in real time.<br>

The results obtained allow us to conclude that even the simplest methods of combining can be considered as a way to improve the accuracy of forecasts. In addition, in the case of fluctuations in resource prices, it is even possible to single out a group of methods (namely, combining with weights inversely proportional to the squared errors of individual forecasts) that provide the maximum gain in quality for most periods.</p>

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== Full document ==

<pdf>Media:Draft_Grebennikova_644563717-5743-document.pdf</pdf>

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