Russian Economic Report, No. 24, March 2011 : Sustaining Reforms under the Oil Windfall


== Abstract ==

Despite the recent slowdown, the             underlying growth of the global economy remains solid. After             a 4 percent growth in 2010, Russia's real output is             expected to grow 4.4 percent in 2011, increasingly driven by             domestic demand. Russia's households have absorbed the             food price shock thanks to a combination of higher wages and             pensions, and resort to private and public safety nets. The             country emerged from the global recession with lower             unemployment and poverty than feared. But global risks and             uncertainties increased with the new oil shock. Although the             short-term impact will be positive for Russia's export             and fiscal revenues, there is no room for complacency.             Macroeconomic policy should focus on the short-term             objective of controlling inflation and medium-term fiscal             adjustment towards long-term, sustainable level of non-oil             fiscal deficit. Improving the efficiency of public             expenditure to create fiscal space for productive             infrastructure and strengthening the investment climate for             the private sector remain among key long-term challenges.             The ongoing rethinking of the government's long-term             strategy and a period of high oil revenues provide an             opportunity to focus on these long-term issues more             forcefully than during the global crisis.


== Original document ==

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* [http://hdl.handle.net/10986/27251 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/27251] under the license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo